KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDER UPDATE

After the first weekend where we really got to see some of the best three year old crop of 2009, there were a couple surprises in the bunch.

Quality Road bounced back in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in a very big way. Sitting just behind early speedster, This One's for Phil. The fractions were not extremely fast for the mile, but the half went in roughly :45 and that second quarter probably cost This One's for Phil his chance to make a statement. I wouldn't completely discount him after that effort following his 117 Beyer in the Sunshine Millions Sprint. Quality Road was one of the early favorites to make a run towards the Kentucky Derby and had hit a couple of obstacles prior to his victory this past Saturday. He looks primed to be the favorite in the Florida Derby if he decides to stay at Gulfstream to prep for the Derby.

Personally, I thought the run by Beethoven from dead last at the 3/4 pole was very impressive at Gulfstream. The track has had a front end bias for most of the meet and it did early in the day on Saturday. I haven't seen a horse make up that much ground in really and of the big races that have been run there. If he could get a better jockey than Borel aboard to keep him a bit closer I think Beethoven could really surprise some people in his next start.

SHAM STAKES

The Pamplemousse lived up to the hype and absolutely dominated the field at Santa Anita. The horses picking up the pieces did not seem overly impressive and I would not take any chances on the horses that picked up the pieces.

As far as The Pamplemousse goes, I am not overly excited about any of the West Coast three year olds and rarely do I ever take a chance on one in the Derby. I am very excited to see the showdown between Pioneerof the Nile and The Pamplemousse in the Santa Anita Derby, but I really don't expect that I am going to take a chance on any of these horses in the Derby.

I would really look to Oaklawn, Fair Grounds, and Gulfstream over the next month or so to see if anyone stands out in those prep races. I am looking towards the Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby to find my favorite.

Right now I believe it is too tough to call.

HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS - 03/04/2009 - Aqueduct

Race 1:

MOST LIKELY: #1 - Toga Tiger (5-2)
BEST VALUE: #5 - John's Jean (12-1)
LONGSHOT PLAY: #5 - John's Jean (12-1)

Race 2:

MOST LIKELY: #4 - Southern Days (2-1)
BEST VALUE: #3 - Quantifier (9-2)
LONGSHOT PLAY: #2 - Hot Chile Soup (10-1)

Race 3:

MOST LIKELY: #1/#1A - City Vicar/Kitty's Wish (7-5)
BEST VALUE: #2 - Angelic Timber (8-1)
LONGSHOT PLAY: #6 - Aces Rewards (20-1)

Race 4:

MOST LIKELY: #1/#1A - Catskill City/Rocknrollsong (9-5)
BEST VALUE: #5 - Mr. Joystick (8-1)
LONGSHOT PLAY: #3 - Glen (15-1)

Race 5:

MOST LIKELY: #6 - One in a romp (7-2)
BEST VALUE: #6 - One in a romp (7-2)
LONGSHOT PLAY: N/A this race

Race 6:

MOST LIKELY: #1 - Head Heart Hoof (5-1)
BEST VALUE: #3 - JT Moore (5-1)
LONGSHOT PLAY: #4 - Edashor (15-1)

Race 7:

MOST LIKELY: #2 - Gimmearoutine (3-1)
BEST VALUE: #9 - Blue Bullet (6-1)
LONGSHOT PLAY: #3 - Fire Marshal (15-1)

Race 8:

MOST LIKELY: #1 - Southern Missile (5-2)
BEST VALUE: #4 - Palmer's Approach (4-1)
LONGSHOT PLAY: N/A this race

Race 9:

MOST LIKELY: #3 - Knot News (3-1)
BEST VALUE: #4 - Karakorumsweetheart (12-1)
LONGSHOT PLAY: #4 - Karakorumsweetheart (12-1)